It’s a true battle of David versus Goliath, as the overpowering, #1 overall real estate market in the Capital Region, Shenendehowa School District, takes on the impressive, yet smaller, #2 South Colonie School District real estate market, for the first ever, borderline bizarre, real estate Super Bowl.

Not sure about you, but I am excited to see how this match up will end up, and my main question I really have for this game is: Will it even be close?

1st Quarter

When it comes to the size of these respective districts real estate markets, the comparison isn’t even close.

The Shenendehowa School District saw the most homes ever to hit the market in 2017, and the most homes listed in the Capital Region, with over 1,000 homes offered up for sale.

Despite all the talk about a housing shortage, Shen sellers certainly came to the table last year, with a 5% increase in available homes for sale, year on year versus 2016. This was a good rise in a high demand market that caters to a lot of home buyers consistently.

The South Colonie School District listed nearly half that amount, countering with 563 homes to hit the market for the year.

While there isn’t much say here due to geographic boundaries, the South Colonie district still finished 2nd overall in our list of best real estate markets despite the mismatch with inventory.

As was the case with Shen, the South Colonie School District contradicted all the talk of fewer homes on the market, and home buyers angst about lack of choices.

Available homes on the market increased for South Colonie by 4.61% in 2017 versus 2016, offering more opportunities to home buyers in Albany County’s #1 market.

Shen overpowers South Colonie when it comes to homes listed for sale. Of course this category is a direct correlation with overall supply, crucial when working with markets such as real estate. This to me is worth 7 points for Shenendehowa.

2nd Quarter

One would think that leading the region in overall inventory better be backed up with high demand, or we would find a lot of unsold homes left over on the market.

But Shenendehowa home sellers were met with such demand in 2017. To no surprise really, the 825 home sales within the district was best in the four main counties in the Capital Region.

This was also a 5.93% increase in 2017 compared to 2016, matching expectations for home sellers and then some. Demand will continue to be high in the #1 market as supply may continue to grow.

Not much South Colonie can do here in terms of matching up to Shen’s volume. But this market at least matched supply with high demand in 2017 as well.

South Colonie’s real estate market saw a 8.25% increase in overall sales, with 474 closings last year compared to 434 sales in 2016.

Both of these markets saw an increase in overall inventory and home sales, despite negative talk all year of a shallow market.

Nevertheless, South Colonie just can’t match up here, and Shen takes a 14-0 lead early.

South Colonie saw a finish of 3rd overall when it came to sale ratio, or percentage sold, in 2017. Think about this as the pass completion percentage for a quarterback. 10 passes thrown, 5 of them caught, 50% completion percentage.

The South Colonie market edged Shen in 2017, with a 83% sale ratio when calculating the 469 home sales against the 563 homes for sale on the market all year.

Shen, while posting an impressive number themselves, fell short with a 81% sale percentage ratio when calculating the 822 home sales against the 1,011 homes listed.

We are going to see South Colonie get on the board here before halftime. But I think a better home sale ratio is only good for a three-point field goal.

South Colonie wins the battle of home sale percentage, which quite honestly, isn’t a major advancement here. But, I say that this win is good enough for three points.

Halftime 

This is looking a bit one-sided so far. Shen obviously is the overpowering market, posting more home listings and more home sales than any other market in the region.

South Colonie, while strong, may not be able to stay in this game due to being outmatched geographically.

Let’s see if South Colonie can hang around and make this one a game.

3rd Quarter

2017 was one of the fastest real estate markets across the region when compared to the last ten years or so.  Ever since the housing crisis stopped things in their tracks during the start of 2009, 2016 and 2017 have proved that the market is back and better than ever.

South Colonie, and the Colonie 12205 zip code itself, were known for posting some of the fastest sales in 2017, with homes selling in under 30 days in most cases. This is a trend that we expect to continue for the foreseeable future.

Overall the 42 days on market was still strong for South Colonie, but it got even stronger when you begin to drill down and look at how different zip codes and home styles performed inside the South Colonie School District.

Shen home sales were not far being. 47 days on market in 2017 was just 5 days slower than South Colonie. And like it’s #2 rival, Shen home sellers have a weapon of their own with the 12065 zip code of Clifton Park, which moves the bulk of Shen home sales each year, and very quickly I may add.

Days on market is a key metric into determining overall demand inside a real estate market. It tells us how long home sellers can expect to be “For Sale”, before they accept an offer and go under contract.

Seeing how that is the case, this is definitely worthy of a touchdown score for South Colonie, proving that they are still in this game despite an early deficit.

An important category not talked about enough is the List Price to Sale Price ratio.

This metric basically tells us how much of your asking price you can expect to receive in your home sale.

A simple example here would be looking at a home that is asking $100,000. If a home buyer submits an offer of $97,000 that is accepted, the home sellers have just received 97% of their asking price.

While most of the region is above 95% for this statistic, it still is worthy of attention when it comes time to buy or sell a home. This stat can literally tell you what offer to expect on your home.

In 2017, South Colonie home sellers received 98.90% of their asking price. This ratio was the best list price to sale price percentage among all the 32 school district real estate markets we track.

Said differently, South Colonie home sellers got more money for their home in 2017 than any other market in the region.

With that being said, there isn’t much discrepancy from one market to another with this category. As long as the market is in high demand, and a home is priced correctly, home sellers can expect 95%+ of their correct asking price, that means, if your home is overpriced you won’t receive an offer at all.

Clifton Park home sellers received 98.17% of their asking price in 2017, this ranked them 5th overall in the Capital Region, since four other markets also received 98% or more for their homes in 2017.

As was the case with overall sale percentage, list price to sale price ratio is an important metric to track, but not major enough to get into the end-zone for seven points.

Chalk it up as another three point field goal for South Colonie here as they barely edged out Shen in this category.

4th Quarter

South Colonie has made it a game here. The first ever Capital Region Real Estate Super Bowl is proving to be a match-up that may come down to the end.

This is the point in the game where Shen shows more of its dominance that we saw in the 1st quarter, as we now look at overall sale prices for these two markets in 2017.

For Shen sellers, they posted an impressive average sale price for the year of $298,360. This is quite the number considering the 822 home sales still meant that high volume didn’t shrink the average home sale prices.

This was a 5.60% increase in average sale prices in 2017 versus 2016, and with high demand, we expect that to continue this year.

South Colonie, as you can imagine, couldn’t match the near $300,000 average sale price that Shen posted. And if our list of school district real estate markets weren’t ranked in order of demand, a lower sale price could have scored a touchdown in affordability for South Colonie.

But the real estate market is all about leverage, and Shen sellers take this category down with ease. South Colonie home sellers saw an average sale price of $215,136 in 2017. While that was an 8% increase for home sellers in this market, it wasn’t enough to stop the Shen market from netting the most money in their home sales.

Shen gets in the endzone here with an easy touchdown to take an eight point lead, late in the 4th quarter.

South Colonie needs to pull out all the stops if they want to come back and win this thing. But what else could they use to combat this strong Shenendehowa School District real estate market to give home sellers in South Colonie the edge?

How about taxes?

The dreaded reality of paying taxes is a thorn in the side of all home owners and potential buyers. It’s especially painful for New Yorkers in general, let alone in the Capital Region.

But low taxes is the hidden gem that South Colonie has to boost sale prices due to lower tax bills for new home buyers.

The average taxes paid on all home sales in 2017 for South Colonie School District was just $4,473 from the 474 home sales. This is tops for tax affordability in the Capital Region for a market of this size.

Shen couldn’t stop this number, posting an average tax amount of $5,701 for all of their 825 homes sales in 2017.

While this is a respectable number considering the average sale price of almost $300,000, it still is most likely to increase as the years progress, squeezing home buyers even more and tightening up on affordability going forward.

That’s a late touchdown score for the South Colonie School District with an impressive overall tax amount that buyers want to buy into every year, but unfortunately, the South Colonie real estate market has come up short, by only one point, to the bigger, stronger, (but not faster), Shenendehowa School District.

There you have it. Shenendehowa wins the 1st annual Real Estate Super Bowl of the Capital Region by a final score of 21-20 over South Colonie.

Final Score:

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